Everyone in the East has fatal flaws that could come back and bite them in the playoffs, even as the conference has taken a leap this season with quality.
Here’s what the top four seeds should be concerned with most.
Philadelphia’s late-game offense
It sounds ridiculous on its face, having Joel Embiid and James Harden handling the controls, but starting with the March 14 home loss to Denver (scored just 22 points), the fourth quarters have been the bugaboo in losses for the last month.
Putting up 14 in a disheartening loss to Toronto where the 76ers scored just 51 after the first quarter (yes, you read that correctly). Being held to 18 against Phoenix on March 27 when trailing by five entering the fourth, a winnable game.
They scored 27 against Milwaukee in that marquee game where Giannis Antetokounmpo stuffed Embiid at the rim to close it, but the offense looked so gummed up and out of rhythm all the way to the finish.
The coup de grâce was an alarming 15-point showing in Detroit where the 76ers were nearly doubled up in the fourth by a Pistons team that wouldn’t have minded losing that game to stay in good lottery standing.
Harden is deliberate and you can trust the offense in his hands. But he’s deliberate and ball dominant so you won’t get a plethora of opportunities, the pace won’t be pushed and he hasn’t been incredibly efficient, which exacerbates things.
Tobias Harris gets lost if he’s not featured, Tyrese Maxey has gone too many fourth quarters without getting opportunities and playing Matisse Thybulle means defenses will dare him to shoot. Maxey and Thybulle clearly like playing faster and getting easier buckets, and although the fourth quarter is usually a much slower affair so this isn’t limited to just the 76ers, it feels worse because of the style.
A lot of standing around, waiting on Harden to make a move. If he’s not going to be better, and we all know he’s not the type to be a threat off the ball, he’ll have to cede that space to Embiid — but you risk wearing him down more because of his load on the defensive end.
There are no clear answers when they struggle, but it’s clear what the issues are when they do.
The Celtics haven’t been beating teams; they’ve been bludgeoning them with the strength of Thor’s hammer by an average of 22.1 points in their last eight wins. But when they do struggle, it’s when one of their two stars, Tatum and Brown, struggle offensively.
Brown shot 5 of 14 in the second half against Miami, while Tatum stayed effective. It was a similar story in the Celtics’ 95-92 loss to Dallas — another hot team — in mid-March, where Tatum shot 7 of 23 and Brown was only slightly better at 6 of 16. The chances of both struggling for significant stretches in playoff series seems unlikely, and while they’ve been incredibly efficient the last two months, neither gets to the free-throw line a bunch.
They’re a middle-of-the-pack 3-point shooting team, with only Grant Williams shooting above 40% among the regulars. Dallas guarded Tatum with length and switched up coverages, while being allowed to play him physically.
When Brown struggled against Miami, it was a similar formula. Length and multiple efforts.
Conceding space to Marcus Smart or turning Al Horford into a reluctant scorer might be the game plan, even if Smart and Horford find themselves with favorable matchups.
The Celtics’ defense has been stout in the early days without Robert Williams III, in part because Smart is challenging for the Defensive Player of the Year award. That figures to carry over when the playoffs begin next weekend.
Tatum has been much smarter about shot selection, but zoning up and making him a facilitator might mean he’ll force the action to get going, which could wind up being someone’s only hope.
Miami’s crunch-time identity
The things to worry about with the Heat appear minor when you consider Erik Spoelstra’s wizardry, more like bugaboos than huge roadblocks. They don’t have a traditional “rising tide lifts all boats” closer, but Jimmy Butler has traditionally been someone more than trustworthy because he makes sound decisions and doesn’t turn it over much, in addition to getting to the free-throw line.
In crunch time, which NBA.com defines as the last five minutes, Butler is shooting 32%. Tyler Herro, who took a leap after a sophomore slump of sorts, is shooting 34.7%. For reference, Tatum shoots 37.2% and Brown is at 42.6% — defenses usually tighten so it’s not a terrible number.
Butler is deliberate, Herro is a little more herky-jerky. It could make for the best of both worlds if it works — if it works.
Miami hangs its hat on defense, so having PJ Tucker on the floor is critical since he’s so versatile at his size. He’s shooting 41% from 3 on the season, but just 23% after the All-Star break. Butler being a non-shooter gums up the spacing for the shooting and driving lanes for Kyle Lowry or even Bam Adebayo.
Lately, having Max Strus has borne fruit and they recently gave Victor Oladipo minutes in Toronto, but it’s unclear whether they’ll work him into the playoff rotation when the games count.
Lowry can be the great equalizer here, because Butler trusts him and he’s comfortable on and off the ball in late-game situations. Whether it’s about the appearance of being in control or the chance of spontaneity, that’s what Spoelstra will have to juggle late.
Milwaukee’s defense
It’s weird considering Antetokounmpo is in the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year, but the Bucks are a middle-of-the-pack defensive team. Not having Brook Lopez has hurt, causing Antetokounmpo to overextend and play backline center as opposed to roaming a little more.
Jrue Holiday is still capable of putting someone in a straitjacket, as he did with Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn last week, turning the Nets offense into a one-dimensional crawl.
But the numbers the Bucks have given up have been ghastly: 138 to Minnesota in late March, 127 to the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies, 118 against Dallas in a nationally televised loss. The 153 to the Clippers wasn’t good, but hardly any of the Bucks’ regulars played after the overtime win against Brooklyn.
Giving up the most threes last season was a formula to a championship, but teams are more comfortable bombing away, and with the margin for error being slimmer — like a shoe being half a size too big — shoring that up might be a top priority.
That requires a lot of ground to cover, especially with the perimeter defenders aside from Holiday.
Antetokounmpo becoming an unassailable prime-time offensive force wasn’t something we were sure of this time last year, but he’s more than answered those questions.
That makes them bankable and perhaps even, favored over other evenly matched teams.
It will also make up for their lack of overall continuity, the sweat equity they’ll rely on in the coming months, with their best five-man lineups barely playing 300 minutes together — as most other contenders in the East are in the 400-minute range.
But everyone has some level of vulnerability, it’s just a matter of who can best exploit it.
from WordPress https://ift.tt/O9zbT6g
via IFTTT
No comments:
Post a Comment